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The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed.
— William Gibson
The Climate Change Commission’s advice to the Government includes the following recommendation.
Many cities are further along the path to low emissions than those in New Zealand. What do we know about cities with the lowest per capita carbon footprints? The big idea is that a low-carbon city is a by-product of creating a more liveable, more just city, not an end in itself. It turns out that low-carbon cities share a number of features.
In the lowest-carbon cities, at least three quarters of people live in amenity-dense neighbourhoods and past investments in transport infrastructure mean they live in a 15 minute city. That is, in 15 minutes from home, people can travel up to 1.5 km on foot or by scooter, at least 3 km by bike or bus, and up to 10 km on rapid transit. This approach to urban design is sometimes called density done well
. These cities can afford a slower take-up of electric vehicles, as they are starting from a low emissions base.
Low-carbon cities are multi-modal — people can choose the modes that best fit their journeys. As a result, they are also efficient — space-efficient, time-efficient, and energy-efficient. In contrast, high-carbon cities are less amenity-dense, more uni-modal and more car-dependent.
The lesson for New Zealand is that it is better to avoid carbon emissions in the first place than to invest in technologies, such as electric vehicles, to decarbonise emission-creating activities. The challenge for us is that retrofitting 15-minute transport infrastructure is expensive and disruptive. Auckland is discovering that light metro (a 15 minute technology) is at least twice as expensive as the slower on-street light rail. Frequent bus services are expensive to operate through low-density neighbourhoods.
The Climate Change Commission is silent on amenity density. Under transport, it recommends three areas for the Government to focus on:
This leads to and leaves us with some big questions:
What is the right mix of emission reduction (convert the vehicle fleet to electric) and emission avoidance (mode-shift to more walking, cycling and public transport)?
Do we invest in offering the sweetest carrots and aim to create amenity-dense 15 minute cities; or
Do we invest in less sweet carrots (e.g., aim for 20 minute cities) and use more sticks like congestion charges and carbon fees?
What can individuals do? My advice is that when you next move house, consider moving to a more amenity-dense neighbourhood.
As we reshape our cities, we need to keep in mind what Jane Jacobs wrote. Whenever and wherever societies have flourished and prospered rather than stagnated and decayed, creative and workable cities have been at the core of the phenomenon. Decaying cities, declining economies, and mounting social troubles travel together.